An Update: The NL East Still Looks Competitive
About a month ago, I told you the National League East kick started free agency. Now, I’m back to say that this division looks like it could be a lot of fun, given all the moves since then. Atlanta and Washington may not even be done yet, as Josh Donaldson remains unsigned and both teams still in contention. Here’s a very early preview of the division.
The Atlanta Braves won the division and were one game from the National League Championship Series. They’ve gone out and either re-upped key contributors or strengthened presumed holes. They brought back all of the following: Tyler Flowers, Chris Martin, Darren O’Day, Nick Markakis, Charlie Culberson. Nothing sexy, but Flowers paired with Travis D’Arnaud, should make for a good defensive catching duo.
They let Dallas Keuchel join the up-and-coming Chicago White Sox and Julio Teherán left for the Los Angeles Angels. In response, they brought in Cole Hamels on a one year deal. They went out and got one of the best relievers available in Will Smith. As mentioned above, they are still, on face value, a possible destination for Donaldson.
Smith, D’Arnaud and Martin were the only players to receive contracts longer than one year, receiving a three year and two year deals respectively. If they can convince Donaldson to come back, then there is a very good chance this team wins the East again, but either way they won’t be without competition.
The Washington Nationals were actually one of the best teams in the second half last year. Like the Braves, they’ve focused on retaining key parts and making some smaller additions to create depth and flexibility.
The big signing was getting Stephen Strasburg back in the rotation on a seven year deal. They then re-signed Daniel Hudson to a two year deal, along with Yan Gomes. Game seven Hero, Howie Kendrick, received a one year deal to come back. Adrúsbal Cabrera also took a one year deal to return.
The new additions to their major league roster will be Starlin Castro, on a two year deal, along with the reliever Kendrick homered off of in game seven, Will Harris, on a three year deal. Eric Thames was signed to a one year deal, presumably for corner outfield and first basemen depth. Castro, in particular, adds some versatility with some mix and match potential to Kendrick and Cabrera in the infield.
Castro was actually very good in the second half last year, and hit lefties really well:
With top prospect Carter Kieboom looking to break in at third, Castro and Cabrera provide insurance in case he isn’t ready. They could platoon at second or third, with Cabrera hitting against right handing pitching and Castro against lefties. Kendrick could play at both corner infielder spots and second base, or even some spot innings in the outfield. The caveat being that the Nationals don’t necessarily want any of Castro, Kendrick or Cabrera playing a ton of innings, because it probably means Kieboom isn’t ready or injured.
Harris and Hudson give the Nationals a pretty good trio with Sean Doolittle. Now we’ll see if Mike Rizzo’s initial bullpen works out, or if he’ll be scrambling again come the trade deadline. The only thing we can really be sure of is the starting rotation, with a question mark next to Max Scherzer and whether his back injury will be a chronic problem.
Anthony Rendon did leave for the Angels and that does leave a sizable hole offensively and defensively at third base. As mentioned, Kieboom could come in ready to hit, but his defense won’t come close to Rendon’s. The Nationals have been rumored to be after Josh Donaldson, who’s an older and lower ceiling version of Rendon.
I’m not sure I understand passing on Rendon for Donaldson, since you’d at least get more years closer to Rendon’s prime than you would with Donaldson. If they get Donaldson, they make the Braves weaker and can potentially avoid the wild card, if not then their most likely avenue of contention runs through the wild card again.
The New York Mets have quietly made some moves, albeit nothing ground breaking. They did let Zack Wheeler walk to a division rival in Philadelphia and replaced him with Rick Porcello, which is a downgrade. They also added Michael Wacha to hedge against potential starter injuries, since this is the Mets we’re talking about, but he could also serve as a bullpen arm.
Other than that, they added Dellin Betances on an incentive laden deal designed around the amount of appearances he makes. He has a player option for 2021, and a vesting option for 2022 based on his appearances in 2021. Jake Marisnick is an outfield depth piece, who should provide good innings as a defensive replacement, unless the Mets decide to play him full time, since his bat is lacking. With their rotation, they should compete, but unless something drastic happens, they too will most likely be looking to make the playoffs via the wild card.
The Philadelphia Phillies are coming off as disappointing year a .500 team could have. They brought in Bryce Harper through a large contract and Jean Segura via trade, and both were good last year. They also signed Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson, who were both hurt last year. McCutchen should be ready for 2020, with questions about how the ACL recovery will affect him overall. Robertson won’t be back until 2021, essentially losing two seasons, due to Tommy John surgery.
The rotation and bullpen were lacking, once you got past Aaron Nola. So, the Phillies went out and signed Zack Wheeler. It’s going to be a high risk, high reward deal dependent on whether Wheeler remains healthy. Still, even after Nola and Wheeler, the rotation lacks a third starter. They opted not to sign Dallas Keuchel, so they’ll run with Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin. It won’t be surprising if we see them looking for a starter at the trade deadline. Héctor Neris was essentially the only good reliever last year, and yet the Phillies didn’t make any transactions to address this.
They did sign Didi Gregorius to be their shortstop on a one year “prove it” deal. Allowing them to move Segura to second now that Cáesar Hernández is gone and potentially Kingery to third, where he’s a better defender and hitter than Maikel Franco was. Franco was not tendered a contract. If the Gregorius contract works out and McCutchen is full strength, the only weakness in the lineup should be center field, where Adam Haseley is penciled in. They could compete for the wild card, but the Phillies are probably going to need a lot of luck for that to happen.
The Miami Marlins are the only team in the division without an outside chance at making the playoffs. They’re firmly in rebuilding mode, as they have been since their 2017 fire sale to cut payroll for the billionaires who bought them by incurring debt. Still they’ve made some interesting moves.
They traded for Jonathan Villar, who was a four win player last year, for basically nothing. They also added Jesús Aguilar off of waivers. They then signed Corey Dickerson to a (relatively to the rest of their roster) large contract for two years. They then added Francisco Cervelli, as a backup catcher. Again, nothing to make them contenders, but if Villar and Aguilar among others play well, then the Marlins could be sellers to re-stock their farm system.
Their rotation and bullpen are full of young and controllable arms, though not necessarily good arms. Their main pitching prospect, Sixto Sanchez, who was acquired in the J.T. Realmuto trade, could arrive in 2020 but he alone will not make this rotation great. We’re still probably two to three years away from the Marlins being decent. Still, four out of five teams with playoff hopes could make this division very fun to watch in 2020.
