Daytona vs. Tampa Notebook
Cincinnati has recently graduated a fair amount of young talent to their major league club, with varying degrees of success but their Single-A Affiliate has some players worth keeping an eye on for the next few years.
The first pitcher I saw from Daytona was Nestor Lorant, who is in his second run through the Florida State League. He’s improved greatly since last year, slicing his walk rate down from nearly 20% all the way to 6%. The Reds have been fairly careful (as they have with all their Single-A staff), using him mostly as a multi-inning piggyback and he’s never thrown more than five innings in an outing. He started the Wednesday game, his fifth of the year, and probably wasn’t as sharp as his priors, but still limited Tampa to two runs over five innings of work.
He threw what looked like a sinker to me, but was characterized as a four-seam fastball by Hawkeye. It had a fair amount of arm side run, touching 92mph early but sitting more 89 or 90mph as the start progressed. It’s a really simple and clean wind-up that he consistently repeated, with nothing super unique about it. His stand out pitch was a change-up which he could command to get a called strike, get batters to whiff on and weak contact when batters made it. He mixed in a curveball that he struggled to throw for a strike with much more vertical movement than any horizontal movement. Lorant probably could’ve been moved to High-A, but he’ll probably start there next season.
Lorant was followed by Cole Schoenwetter, a 19 year old who was making his first appearance in the FSL. He made a really strong impression, striking out Roderick Arias and Willy Montero, before walking Hans Montero and allowing a single to Coby Morales, who were promptly driven in by recent draftee Parks Harber. He was touching 94 early on, and nearly all of the whiffs came on that pitch. He could not locate or induce any whiffs his very sharp high-spin curveball, which I think is what led Harber to really zone in on his fastball. He managed to wriggle out of that jam, and proceeded to walk one batter, get two outs then walk the next two batters before being pulled. The fastball held it’s velocity for the most part, and he was pitching up to three innings in the Florida Complex League. The fastball is already a strong pitch, but tightening up his command and control, especially so batters don’t have to ignore his secondaries is going to be crucial for him.
Jonah Hurney came in to clean up the jam with one sinker, which sat mostly 88–90mph with some very good sink and was adept at getting soft contact from Tampa hitters. He closed out the game using his extremely low arm slot to pepper in more downward moving sliders in the 81–83mph band, getting both swinging and called strikes (64% Called Strike+Whiff%). Parks Harber did again drive a change-up into the gap, which put him in scoring position. But with the infield drawn in slightly, a hard groundball caught him in no-mans land and he was thrown out trying to score to tie the game. Hurney’s 24 years old and a recent undrafted free agent signing, so we’re probably looking at organizational depth but the low arm angle with his sinker and slider may push him beyond just that.
Adam Serwinowski is a name you’ll probably recognize from many outlets rankings of the Reds organization. He’s 19 and has touched 97mph in some of his starts. Relatedly, he’s never gone more than five innings this year. He sat mostly 93mph in this start, touching 95 a couple times. The only other pitch he throws is a breaking ball that will run 80–82mph with more downward than horizontal movement. Some video of his motion is below:
My impression is it’s very stiff and robotic, with a really emphasized dip as he breaks his hands, but the stuff is effective. His fastball generated a 43% Whiff Rate, with little contact from Tampa when he threw it in the strike zone. It has a very good pitch shape and when he locates it up in the zone, he gets those swings and misses. He will tug the fastball to his glove side, especially when he tries to put a little extra heat on it. He flashed solid command of his secondary, putting it back door to righties several times and while they made more contact against it compared to his fastball, it was fairly benign. His start is visualized below, and you’ll see he does a fairly good job avoiding the heart of the zone with his fastball, though his slider can find it’s way to middle-middle every once in a while.
Serwinowski also has some room to grow, which could lead to velocity gains. The outcomes for him right now are extremely varied, given he’s a 19 year old starting pitcher. I won’t rule out a starter outcome, since we have examples of starters succeeding with two pitches in the majors, but success in the higher levels may require finding a third pitch, which he has plenty of time to do.
In terms of pitching for Tampa, I was mostly interested in Henry Lalane’s first start above the complex league in 2024. I’ll preface that Lalane’s season got started later than even the complex start date, since he was dealing with an injury, so it probably should have tempered expectations.
Lalane’s delivery is very loose, albeit slightly chaotic. His command was below average throughout the outing, sticking mostly with change-ups and fastballs with exactly one slider that he threw to a left handed hitter. He touched 94mph but was mostly 91–92mph in his 2/3 of inning of work, where he threw 38 pitches. Lalane gave up a homerun to Sammy Stafura on a change-up dead middle of the zone. It was hit directly down the line and looked foul to me and was contested by Tampa as a foul ball but the home plate umpire disagreed. The good news was that when Lalane was near the zone, he was able to get called strikes and whiffs, while the bad news is that he really wasn’t near the zone frequently enough for it to matter. Other than that one single mistake change-up, he was able to locate it consistently at the bottom of the zone, coaxing a few whiffs from Daytona batters.
Lalane’s only 21, and this is his first action above complex ball, so there are a wide variety of outcomes for his development. I feel the most likely is a reliever, just from the command aspect. In one inning bursts he could gain a few miles per hour, especially if he also fills out his extremely large frame. More importantly would be staying healthy, as his injury this year was of the shoulder variety, which are slightly more concerning. Keep an eye on his last couple starts this year and then probably check back in 2025.
In terms of hitters, Daytona posses a few position players to watch. Yerlin Confidan is a centerfielder, with above average raw power that he hasn’t got to consistently in game. He’s long and moves fairly well in centerfield, though it’s more average speed. He’s a lefty that shows a significant platoon split against same-handed pitchers. He has a top end exit velocity at 114mph and a 90th percentile at 108.9mph, so the thunder is there. He took some very ugly swings against Tampa lefty Rafelin Nivar’s sliders, but took a breaking ball the other way in his other two strike situation against a righty. He has a 46.4% Whiff rate against secondary pitches, but his strikeout rate is not near the league leaders at only 24.6%. There’s an opportunity for him to at least be a platoon bat against righties, but he’ll need to rein in his swing and miss.
Ariel Almonte is a large lefty corner outfielder, as tall as Confidan but beefier, with nearly identical exit velocities on the season. He has done a better job pulling his flyballs at 14.2%, which would explain why he’s sitting at 19 homeruns on the year. He has similar whiff issues with secondaries, and the same platoon situation as Confidan. He’s not the most fleet of foot, though he moves well enough to be average in the corner. He expanded a few times on breaking pitches out of the zone. His strikeout rate is worse than Confidan at 32%, and this is his second full stint in the FSL with no improvement in that strikeout rate. Being a corner platoon bat is a possibility, but addressing some of his swing and miss issues will be important to get there.
Sammy Stafura had a strong set of games that I attended. I had him at 4.0 down the line on a ground out, but I couldn’t verify it with anyone else so take it with a grain of salt. He’s patient, able to draw a walk. The exit velocities indicate below average power, unless he can optimize to pull his fly balls more often. He was good in the field, with an arm to stick at shortstop and fluid movements. He doesn’t chase, but there is swing and miss again especially against secondaries. Playing good defense at short and walking enough for a .376 OBP is good, but adding some more power would be better.
For Tampa, I had Marshall Toole 3.88 down the line on an infield single. He has one ball in play with an exit velocity at 107mph this year, with a 30% walk rate currently and six stolen bases in eight games. He’s mostly been in left field, where he’s been good defensively, making a good diving play on a sinking line drive. I’d watch him as a table setter to see how that discipline holds up at higher levels.
I’m probably one of a handful of people with any sort of investment in Willy Montero but he’s grown over the year defensively in centerfield, which I dinged early. I think he could improve some of his routes as they tend to curve rather than go direct especially on balls directly over his head. It’s more line drive contact for doubles than homerun power but the top end exit velocities indicate he has plenty of raw power. He still chases more than you would like and isn’t an on-base maven. He’ll probably start at Tampa again next year but he only just turned 20 so there’s plenty of time for him to develop into a potential contributor.
