Joey Votto and the Reds Begin a New Phase
I’m not sure it’s entirely accurate to say the Cincinnati Reds have wasted Joey Votto, but it’s hard to say they’ve really did all they could with him. The Reds have only made the playoffs three times since 1995. It’s unsurprising — to me, at least — that those three appearances occurred during some of Votto’s best years. I’m not so much here to re-litigate what happened with those teams or what they could’ve done better but to talk about Votto and what he is to the Reds today.
The Reds are positioning themselves in the National League playoff race and more or less have been since the off-season leading into the 2019 season. They used their copious luxury tax space to take on Matt Kemp’s salary, which was packaged with Alex Wood and Yasiel Puig. It also allowed them to move Homer Bailey’s contract off payroll. They also had to give up prospects to do it and it doesn’t help that those two prospects — Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray — are now the third and eighth ranked prospects in the Dodgers’ system, according to Baseball Prospectus.
They had previously taken on Matt Wisler and Lucas Sims (who were really just extraneous pitchers for the Atlanta Braves) in exchange for Adam Duvall. Then in the Winter following the 2018 season, they saw an opportunity to buy low on Sonny Gray, who was struggling in New York with the Yankees. To complete this trade, they gave Gray an extension for three years at $30.5 million with a team option for a fourth year.
Nothing about any of these moves were going to create a contender, but they were low risk options that the Reds were hoping could speed up their rebuild. The Gray trade was the only success, with him turning in a career year by fWAR. This gave them a one-two punch with Luis Castillo (who slowed in the second half after a stupendous first half), with Anthony DeSclafani healthy for the first time since 2016 as their third starter.
They turned Puig into Trevor Bauer at the 2019 trade deadline, after Puig’s unspectacular first half. Bauer wasn’t very good — historically he’s only had one good season — but the Reds are hoping for a bounce back to his first half of 2019 performance. Add in Wade Miley and this gives them five strong starters for 2020. This could be a contender’s rotation if it falls into place.
Votto had his worst year statistically in 2019. The last two years have shown his on-base and slugging percentages decline. Votto struck out last year more than he ever had in his career. What’s even more concerning is that Votto has developed a platoon split, hitting far better against righties than lefties.
He’s always been better against righties, but the gap has widened to the point where his wRC+ dropped to 78, where 100 is league average. His power against lefties has been non-existent, with his slugging percentage below .400 the past two years. His K% against lefties was 25% versus 18.3% against righties. It’s something to pay attention to. Votto is 36, with four more seasons under contract before his team option, this could be the beginning of the end.
There are still some positives to hang onto, which could also signal a rebound year in 2020. Votto hit the ball as hard against lefties and righties equally as he ever has in his career. Votto also hit more flyballs (potentially trying to take advantage of a juiced ball) than he ever has against lefties, yet those flyballs only went for home runs 2.6% of the time. His career average for HR/FB% is 17.2%. Votto will be the first to tell you that not all flyballs are good but I’m willing to bet more of those go for homeruns next year. If there’s someone who can figure out what went wrong, Votto is one of the best at diagnosing his swing and process.
Votto doesn’t really need to be the guy for the Reds anymore. Eugenio Suárez is coming off a 49 homerun year and Nick Senzel is a long awaited prospect looking for his first healthy season. Mike Moustakas was just signed to a four year contract, presumably because the Reds believe the plate discipline he’s showed along with the 25+ homeruns is a sustainable change. Aristides Aquino probably isn’t hitting 12 home runs in 22 games again. I don’t think this offense — even with today’s addition of Shogo Akiyama — is quite there for a contender, but the starting rotation is ready to at least spoil someone else’s season.
It’s not uncommon for a long tenured, successful player to be on a team that fails constantly in the postseason. The immediate player that comes to mind, not unlike Votto in position and play style is Don Mattingly. My brother was a huge Mattingly fan and would probably be the first to tell you just how cruel his career was to watch. Mattingly reached the majors after the Yankees reached the World Series and was replaced after the 1995 season, only to watch the Yankees win the 1996 World Series, which was only the beginning of a larger run of success.
Votto may not have injuries to blame for his decline, but more so that he’s now 36 years old. Ancient in baseball years. This decline was coming, especially when he’s signed for another four years. It’s possible Votto plays long enough for another Reds playoff run, and maybe he even contributes to it, but it’s looking less likely. Maybe, with the young bats coming up and the emergence of Suárez as a power threat, Votto can spend time as a lead-off hitter given his ability to draw walks on top of his contact skills.
The road to contention in the NL Central is treacherous, even with the Cubs sitting on their hands. This could just be a buffer year for the Reds, until 2021 when Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson potentially make their debuts. But that’s a lot of hope to place in prospects. If the Reds want to make contend, Votto will need to be better than last year to help the Reds open their next window of contention.
