Jonathan Holder Might Receive A Rude Awakening
The Yankees had a very good bullpen in 2018. The names that come to mind are Dellin Betances, Chad Green, Aroldis Chapman and David Robertson. All have their strengths, be it a rocket fastball or a wipe-out breaking ball. But there is one name not listed to watch in 2019. Jonathan Holder.
There is nothing spectacular about Holder’s 2018. He was good but not an elite reliever, he does not strike out an otherworldly amount of batters, but he did do one thing of note. He posted a HR/9 of .6, which by itself may not stand out for a reliever but combined with another stat may have some interest.
Holder posted a HR/9 of .6 with a FB% of 50.5%. The number of relievers with at least 60 innings pitched who have done that since 2007 (as far back as batted ball data is available) is 14. Listed below:
There is a cornucopia of names above, some were successful, others were not. The name that sticks out is Kenley Jansen, who accomplished this during his fantastic 2016 season. Almost all the above relievers posted at least 1.0 WAR during the seasons listed above. The question is, did these relievers sustain this performance the following year? Also, what can the Yankees expect from Jonathan Holder in 2019? The answer(s) are not reassuring.
Jansen and Ernesto Frieri were the only relievers to even slightly improve on the previous year’s performance in terms of WAR. Every other reliever took a step back whether it was significant or minuscule. Rafael Betancourt, for example, dropped from 3.3 WAR 2007 to .2 WAR in 2008 with his HR/9 rate jumping to 1.39. Hong-Chih Kuo also saw a drop, from 2.3 WAR to -.3 WAR with a spike in his HR/9 to 1.33.
Kiko Calero was in the minor leagues in 2010, David Aardsma would never come close to that 2009 performance again nor would Matt Capps. Carlos Mármol would have a year or two more of success mixed in with some less than successful years.
If Holder wants to avoid the fate of those who came before him, he needs to adjust. Specifically, because he pitches in Yankee Stadium, he should try to avoid fly balls, however obvious that may be. He is not a strikeout pitcher, which may hurt him. Holder possessed the second lowest K/9 and K% of the pitchers on that list. Not to say he can’t strike anyone out, but the reason Kenley Jansen has had so much success is because he does strikeout so many hitters while walking so few (2018 notwithstanding).
One area to improve would be the LOB%, where Holder was the second lowest at 68.3%. If he strands more runners, then he can possibly lower his ERA from 2018. He also would want to induce some weaker contact, his Hard% of 31.8% was above the league average of 22.4% in 2018 and one of the highest in that above group of relievers.
It is entirely possible that this is just the pitcher that Jonathan Holder is. There still is a lot to see, as this was his first full season in the majors as a reliever. The Yankees have a pretty good track record developing relievers so maybe Holder comes out looking entirely different in 2019. The Yankees also just signed Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino. So, there may be less pressure on Holder and less high leverage innings for him overall. Though, if history is any indication, Holder still might be in for a tough season.
