Let’s Do It and Be Legends Pt. 1
Currently, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel remain unsigned. These are all surprising facts, stemming from the fact that MLB teams are being particularly stingy and/or colluding to not spend money on premium free agents. All four of these players, if they went to the same team or went separately, would be an upgrade over whatever is currently there.
I don’t want to find specific landing spots for each individual, I want to find a landing spot who can house all four of these players. I’m going to focus on two teams that I believe are really great fits. I’ll give some context into what it would mean for each team’s payroll, but under no circumstances do I believe that the luxury tax should stop these teams from making these moves. This article will focus on the first team, with a later article covering the second team.
The Angels have the greatest living baseball player in his prime on their team. They have not made the playoffs since 2014, in what was Mike Trout’s worst year as a professional where he produced only (please don’t laugh) 7.6 bWAR. Mike Trout would have been a free agent this year had he not signed his six year contract extension in 2015. Let it be known, even with his injuries limiting his playing time the past two years, that Trout has been severely underpaid and the Angels have failed to put talent around him.
Part of that was because of the contracts given out to Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols, which seems to have made the Angels completely petrified of large financial commitments. Even with Albert Pujols occupying payroll and roster space, they have about $33 million to spend before they reach the luxury tax of $206 million. With Trout in his prime, this would be the free agent class where I would disregard the luxury tax and go all in.
Kole Calhoun is currently slated in as the Angels’ right fielder and ZiPS projects him for 1.5 WAR in 2019, while Steamer projects him for 1.9 WAR. Bryce Harper is projected for 4.9 WAR by Steamer, making him about a 3 win upgrade. Let’s give him $31 million per year for 10 years (Harper didn’t take $30 million from the Nationals) and ship Calhoun off, subtracting $10.5 million, which means we’ve only added $12.5 million to the overall payroll.
Zack Cozart had approximately one above average year, which just so happened to occur right before he hit free agency. He was injured in the first year of his three year contract. ZiPS and Steamer project him to be worth 2.4 WAR at third base. Manny Machado is projected for 5.0 WAR, so this is around a 2–3 win upgrade. If they can find a landing spot for Cozart, they can shed $12,666,667 to offset the other $30 million per year for 10 year contract they give to Machado. This means we’ve only added $17,333,333.
With approximately $37.83 million added to payroll, we are just now crossing the luxury tax line by about $4 million. If you’re gonna do it big, might as well go for it. The next target would have to be the starting rotation. It’s comprised of two young pitchers who have never stayed healthy, the former shell of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs both have potential but both also had Tommy John surgery. Shohei Ohtani was supposed to be a part of this rotation but he also underwent Tommy John surgery.
The signings of Trevor Cahill and Matt Harvey seem very reminiscent of teams who are rebuilding/tanking. A one year deal for each where if either performs extremely well, they could be flipped for assets down the road. The problem is, the Angels are basically built to compete right now and that $19 million spent on Cahill and Harvey could have gone elsewhere. That’s where Dallas Keuchel comes into the mix.
Dallas Keuchel is the best remaining starter after Patrick Corbin signed with the Nationals for six years and $140 million (random aside, he’s paid $13 million in the first year, less than what the Angels paid for Harvey and Cahill combined). Keuchel is not an ace, but he’s no pushover. He’s been worth no less than 2.4 fWAR the last four years.
According to Steamer, he would be the best Angels starter by almost 1 win. He could bump Jaime Barria from the rotation, giving a 1–2–3 of Skaggs, Keuchel and Heaney. About a 2 win upgrade in the rotation. He’s also been more durable than any of the five starters in the rotation currently. Plus, Shohei Ohtani may not be healthy for 2019, but if he returns to form in 2020, that could be a powerful rotation. The contract projections I saw ranged from $19 million to $21 million. If we go with the higher with $21 for four years, we’re about $25 million over the tax line. We have one more player to grab.
The Angels bullpen is rough. Their best option to close is Cody Allen, who fell off as his walks increased along with his HR/9 rate. Craig Kimbrel seems like putting a band-aid on a wound that requires stitches, but if the Angels want to make the additions of Harper and Machado worth it, every bit of value added is important.
The current bullpen is projected at 3.7 WAR by ZiPS, whereas Kimbrel is projected at 1.4 WAR (though FanGraphs has him listed at 2.1 WAR in their 2019 Free Agent Rankings). So, Kimbrel is worth anywhere from 38% to 50% of the current bullpen’s total value. The projections for his contract show a range of $14–16 million. So, let’s say $16 million per year for four years, putting us at about $41 million over the luxury tax.
One other free agent that might be of interest to the Angels is Marwin Gonzalez. Gonzalez played mostly in the outfield last year but he played nearly 200 innings at three of four infield spots. He can provide some flexibility for the Angels to rest certain players and he can hold his own offensively and defensively. He may not replicate that 2017 season ever again, but his ability to plug and play is valuable. I didn’t include him at the top of this post thus he won’t be a part of this exercise. Just know all teams could use Marwin Gonzalez.
The Angels would have a sizable tax bill in this scenario. There would be a 20% tax on their overages with most likely a 12% surtax for exceeding the line by more than $20 million. Also, since these are rough calculations, I’m not sure if we exceed $40 million over the tax, which would incur another tax at 42.5% for the first time. They’d be paying 74.5% on the $40 million or so, which is another $30 million.
With all of that, we’ve added about 8 wins with 3 coming from Harper, about 2 from Machado, 2 from Keuchel and about 1 win from Kimbrel. That won’t mean the Angels will win eight more games, it’s slightly more complicated than that. A lineup of Trout, Harper, Machado and Ohtani when he’s finally healthy will be intimidating. Justin Upton and Andrelton Simmons are no pushovers at the plate either.
Admittedly the rotation and bullpen would still be weaknesses, but this team is certainly better equipped in the American League West division and the American League Wildcard than it was without them. It would also lessen the blow if Trout were to potentially leave, as Machado and Harper would still be in their primes along with Ohtani.
If the Angels are afraid of the tax line, that really doesn’t disqualify them from any of the four free agents. They could either sign one of Machado and Harper or they could sign both Kimbrel and Keuchel if they were able to shed some salary elsewhere and still stay under the tax threshold. The cost for all four is steep, but should cost really factor when it could mean championship? The Angels should just do it, while they still have Mike Trout.
