NL East Kick Starts Free Agency
The NL East was relatively good last year. Four teams had winning percentages of .500 or above, with three of those teams possessing a 50% or greater chance of reaching the playoffs as late as August 22nd. The Mets fell off after that, whereas the Phillies really were superficially in contention until August 4th. Atlanta and Washington would go on to represent the division in the playoffs.
Atlanta won the division yet was eliminated in five games by St. Louis, which included an embarrassing 13–1 loss in game five. They then had to watch a division rival in Washington go on to win the World Series. They addressed bullpen flaws at the 2019 trade deadline, acquiring Chris Martin, Mark Melancon and Shane Greene but in reality both their rotation and bullpen were weaknesses. After Mike Soroka, the Braves rotation was just okay with starters Dallas Keuchel and Mike Foltynewicz making four of the five playoff starts against the Cardinals.
It’s no surprise that Atlanta jumped early to re-sign Martin and sign former San Francisco reliever Will Smith to strengthen their bullpen. They also went for Cole Hamels on a one year deal for $18 million. Even with all these moves, they still have luxury tax space to spend with a hole at third base and potentially another starting rotation spot to shore up. Hamels should basically replicate and even exceed the production of Keuchel last year, even if Hamels is older and experienced shoulder issues. None of these moves are particularly earth shaking but they should at least maintain Atlanta’s position in the NL East. Going out for another starter to replace Julio Teherán and possibly bringing in Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson would really make this a World Series contender.
The Phillies were actually similar to the Braves in that their major flaws were with their starting rotation and their bullpen. They have a decent lineup, though I would still take Atlanta’s over them right now. Philadelphia made the first big money move on December 4th by signing Zack Wheeler to a five year deal worth $118 million. Wheeler was good the past two years with the Mets and obviously the hope would be to get even more improvement once he leaves their terrible defense and front office behind.
It’s a move that signals the Phillies are #GoingForIt but I still think they are several players away from really being anywhere near the playoffs. It gives them a good front end to pair with Aaron Nola, but after those two there isn’t really a reliable arm. Zach Efflin gave them innings but not particularly great ones, while Jake Arrieta pitched throw bone spurs. The front office tried to patch holes with Jason Vargas and Drew Smyly.
The five year commitment is scary, given that Wheeler is just recently stringing together back-to-back healthy seasons. My guess is they were still scared to commit major money for six or seven years to Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole, which I guess makes sense if you’re okay with a less superior pitcher.
They shouldn’t stop here though. Like the Braves, they need at least one more pitcher to really have a chance to compete. On top of that they need to fix a terrible bullpen that will still be without David Robertson, who is going to be recovering from Tommy John surgery. They just non-tendered Maikel Franco, who was once seen as a future piece and César Hernández, leaving holes at second and third. They also need to address center field lest they decide to bring Odubel Herrera back after his suspension for violating the domestic violence policy. Deciding where Scott Kingery will play full time will dictate how second base and center field are filled.
They should shoot for Rendon or Donaldson to fill third base. Their only options seem to be finding solutions via free agency, as their farm system ranked towards the bottom after their trade for J.T. Realmuto. If they simply leave their winter at the Wheeler signing, then this will still be a decent team but with little shot at the playoffs. They should look to rotation options like Hyun-Jin Ryu or Madison Bumgarner before they are picked off the market, because the drop off in starters is steep now that Hamels, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda have signed. After that, look towards whatever bullpen options remain, because the NL East looks like it will be strong again next year.
