One Position Player To Watch From Each 2024 Florida State League Team (That I Saw)
I went to roughly 20 games this summer to watch Single-A games. There’s a wide range of talent level in the league, with many players far off from any appearance in the MLB. The best players don’t tend to stay long, so I tried to time up my viewings with the arrival of certain top prospects but sometimes schedules and timing don’t agree. I’ll try my hand at grading on a 20–80 scale, and find a player from each team that might be a sleeper to watch. I tried to put some restrictions on the list, which are arbitrary such as: did not get promoted to a higher level at any point and preferably not already identified as a Top 100 prospect.
I’m going to be honest, some of these picks were tougher based on those restrictions. I’m not saying any of these guys are All Stars in the waiting, but I see roles in the MLB based on certain traits. Most, if not all of the stats regarding EVs, swing decisions (SEAGER etc.) and pulled fly ball rate come from Robert Orr’s Damage leaderboard, which helped me work through Single-A hitters that I was seeing live.
Tampa
I’ve probably given this away in previous notebooks but I’m planting my flag for Willy Montero. Early on I was not high on him as a defender in centerfield, especially on balls hit over his head but I think I was being a bit too harsh on him. For one, Tampa probably has the worst sun situation for every fielder, as by mid-summer the sun is setting directly behind home plate. Montero’s routes were bending in my early looks, but he still could make up for those inefficient routes and still get leather on the ball even if he couldn’t complete the catch. He did much better as a corner outfielder and had several outfield assists along with a couple near assists as well.
Batting wise, Montero is long and has a bit of a closed off stance like Giancarlo Stanton. His stride tends to open up, (stepping into the bucket) which can pull him off pitches on the outer half. He’s extremely aggressive swinging at pitches in the zone, but he is prone to chase, which he needs to cut down on. He’s in the 60th percentile in Z-Contact% and Whiff% against secondaries. His max exit velocity of 110.3 MPH was 87th percentile for the Florida State league. He only recently turned 20, and I think he has room on his frame to add some more strength. When he digs out of the box I had him timed at ~4.2 secs from the righthanded batters box, which I never corroborated with anyone else. If he adds that muscle, he’ll probably slow down, anyway. The most likely outcome is probably just a bench/4th outfielder type, but I’m dreaming on the potential power hitting centerfielder outcome. 40 FV
Fort Myers
This is the first instance where I had to disregard the restrictions. It would be easy to write about Brandon Winokur here or Rayne Doncon. Doncon graduated before I could even see him and Winokur is fairly well known already. I would love to say Byron Chourio is a player to keep an eye on but he doesn’t hit for any power and doesn’t offset it with any plate discipline, though he’s still young. Payton Eeles fits the “no prospect pedigree” but he played at every available minor league level that wasn’t Double-A. Eeles absolutely torched when he came through Tampa, despite being roughly 5 feet 5 inches tall. I initially suppressed my gut reaction due to his age relative to the rest of the league. Eeles’ calling card is his contact ability and I’m not sure there’s enough power or pulled fly balls (he ran a near 50% groundball rate at every level) to add much ceiling at the Major League level, though he did have a .201 ISO in AAA. Eeles does have running ability, stealing 40 bases between three levels. He doesn’t chase pitches, draws walks and sees a lot of pitches in at-bats. I think a line drive/groundball contact guy who can also draw a walk and be a pest on the base paths while playing average defense at second is a very good role for Eeles. I can imagine him slapping the ball around target field and running for days, I just don’t know if he would jump over Edouard Julien given Julien’s prospect pedigree. 45 FV
Clearwater
Can I interest you in a hitter who had a max exit velocity higher than Aidan Miller, along with an identical SEAGER metric in 2024? Devin Saltiban isn’t going to be better than Aidan Miller, but there is a possibility for a part time bat who can handle up the middle as a defender, though probably more of a second basemen. Saltiban is on the smaller side and I can’t say I see much more strength to build on. He had 17 homeruns with 22 stolen bases this year. His discipline stats show that he’s prone to chase. He was actually in the 25th percentile of the FSL for Z-Contact% and Whiff% against secondaries. Despite that, his swing decisions weren’t bad in terms of attacking pitches in the zone. The whiff and Z-Contact rates just makes his .346 OBP and .428 SLG more impressive to me. He played all of last year at age 19, and he may not be a standout defender at the keystone. The best outcome is an offensive-minded second basemen with power and speed. He needs to get his swing and miss issues under control, and if he does maybe there’s more. 40 FV
Dunedin
I got my first taste of falling too hard for a player in the first week of April when I saw Yhoangel Aponte mash against Tampa. I was thought he would be in High-A by the end of the year. It turned out, that was the high point of his season. Aponte’s statcast metrics are still good, he has one of the higher Max Exit velocities in the league and his 90th percentile exit velocity is also in the top half for FSL. Aponte simply struck out too much, specifically he struggled with breaking and offspeed pitches and was in the 23rd percentile for Z-Contact% in FSL. Listed as a centerfielder right now, I’m not sure I see him sticking there. Corner outfield looks more likely to me. One split that I want to point out is this: Aponte had a .152 OBP and .181 SLG% when behind in the count. Compared to a .479 OBP and .402 SLG% when ahead in the count. This says to me that he’s geared in for fastballs but nothing else, maybe he can’t recognize spin? This was his full year in Single-A and I think given the power he should get more chances. 35 FV
Lakeland
If I was in a front office and the Detroit Tigers came calling with a trade offer, then I would target Cristian Santana as a throw in player. I didn’t write about him in my notebook when Lakeland came to Tampa because he didn’t have a series to write about. However, there are a ton of traits that Santana possesses that I think make him undervalued. Santana was top of the FSL in terms of his swing decisions. He was aggressive on pitches in the zone and didn’t chase outside of the zone. His exit velocities (90th Percentile and Max) rank in the 20th percentile for FSL, so why should you care? Santana stood alone in the FSL in terms of pulled FB%. This profile is akin to what Isaac Paredes is doing in the MLB. Paredes is a 2–4 WAR player the last three years for reference. Where Santana doesn’t match Paredes is his Z-Contact% and Whiff% against secondaries. Santana needs to make more contact, period, to even sniff that outcome. He was also hurt during the year, went to the development list and towards the end of the season he played infrequently. This past year was his third go at Single-A and the batting lines and underlying metrics haven’t shifted much so I’m worried he’s on borrowed time with Detroit. Will the Tampa Bay Rays get him included in a deal where they dump an arbitration eligible player? We can only hope not. 40 FV
Daytona
Daytona has a few players that could eventually see time in MLB. Alfredo Duno and Yerlin Confidan have the prospect profiles so I’m gonna go with Sammy Stafura. Yes, Stafura is definitely a prospect, though I see him more as a low ceiling high floor type. Stafura is below-average to average in the power department right now and I didn’t see much by way of physical projection. By the SEAGER metric, Stafura was 91st percentile in FSL among qualified hitters. While he makes good swing decisions, Stafura was actually 13th percentile in his Z-Contact%. That needs to improve for him to have a shot at higher levels. Stafura doesn’t struggle with secondaries nearly as much as his peers in FSL. Interestingly enough, Stafura had a reverse platoon split. Defensively, I felt Stafura was capable at shortstop, though I didn’t get an opportunity to see anything other than routine plays in my live look. If he can start making contact on in-zone pitches more often, then there might be something more here. 40 FV
Palm Beach
I’m going to be honest, I struggled to find a position player for this list that fit my restrictions. Palm Beach had a lot of older players and not a ton in terms of likely major leaguers, Miguel Villarroel came close but I didn’t actually see him play. Lizandro Espinoza is the closest I can get, but it’s more for his defense than offensive profile. Espinoza is short and quick, with smooth movements at shortstop. I didn’t see him play centerfield but he did see some time there. I think he’s capable of holding down short, his arm is strong enough but even if he moves to second I think he’s fully capable. Espinoza is below average in the power department and unfortunately doesn’t balance it with a high contact rate compared to his peers. He swings and misses against everything that isn’t a fastball. I think the most likely outcome is a defensive replacement, preferably with flexibility for on the dirt and in the outfield. 35+ FV
Bradenton
Bradenton actually had one of the cooler lineups in my opinion. Axiel Plaz would’ve been my pick had I seen him play live. Names like Shalin Polanco, Javier Rivas and Keiner Delgado are worth keeping an eye on. But the focus for me is going to be Esmerlyn Valdez. Valdez is a 20 year old first baseman/corner outfielder and like many of his peers on Bradenton, he struggled with strikeouts. I do think that 30.1% strikeout rate does need some context, which is that he sliced it from 36% in the first half to 26% in the second half, while maintaining a 13% walk rate throughout. He was in top 20% of Florida State League in max exit velocity, 90th percentile exit velocity, SEAGER and pulled fly ball percentage. The thing that could hold him back is his 72.8% Z-Contact, which was near the bottom of the league. Still, this was Valdez’s first full season at Single-A and he held his own while making adjustments in-season. I can see him playing corner outfield for now, but if he needs to slide to first base then the pressure to cut down on his swing and miss is going to intensify. 40 FV
Others
Going back to Bradenton, Javier Rivas is probably always going to swing and miss, but in his second go at Single-A he did meaningfully cut down on his strikeouts. The issue is that he never walks, so it’s balls in play or nothing for him. In my live look, he covered a lot ground as a shortstop despite being 6'6 and he has the arm strength to move to third if needed. He had one of the hardest hit balls in all of FSL last year at 113.4 MPH. He is 22 years old going into 2025, and if he gets to the majors it will probably be a low batting average/low OBP power hitting infielder.
Axiel Plaz came up after I saw Bradenton come through. He played most of the year in Single-A at 18 years old and on the stat line alone, held his own. He hit 15 homeruns overall as a catcher and first baseman. I can’t speak to the defensive side, but offensively Plaz shares a lot of the same traits as Omar Alfonzo, who was promoted to High-A in 2024. Plaz does have a higher Chase % and struck out nearly 30% of the time. He would’ve been my pick for Bradenton but there are a lot of traits here for an 18 year old that make me optimistic, especially if he can stick at catcher.
Raylin Heredia and Avery Owusu-Asiedu are two outfielders that I saw live. Both struggle with offspeed and breaking pitches, and Owusu-Asiedu struggled in particular with swing and miss in the strike zone. I think Owusu-Asiedu is a good defender in centerfield, as he covers a lot of ground in the gaps with a 6'4 frame and he has a fairly strong arm. He could make an impact at least as a defensive replacement, and if he can ever make more contact, he impacts the ball. Heredia is more of a corner outfielder profile who wants to pull and elevate the ball. He doesn’t draw walks quite enough for me and unfortunately he’s surrounded by a fair amount of competition in Jordan Viars and TJayy Walton, who are two players I would also keep an eye on going forward.
