Tampa vs. Dunedin Notebook
For 2024, I challenged myself to get to more minor league games and attempt to “scout” Single-A players. I use this term loosely, because I am not a scout and I’ve only played up to a high school level, but the only way I’m going to learn is to give it a try. I’m lucky enough to live within an hour of a few teams in the Florida State League (West Division) and that those stadiums now feature Hawkeye tracking, which means I can pull Statcast data to backup what I’m seeing in person. With that preamble complete, let’s discuss what I saw during the three games I saw between the Tampa Tarpons and Dunedin Blue Jays.
Pitching in game one for the Blue Jays was Juaron Watts-Brown and for the Tarpons Luis Serna. Both have been ranked in their respective systems top prospects for several outlets. Serna is an International Free Agent signing and only 19 years old, while Watts-Brown is 22 years old and came from Oklahoma State via transfer from Long Beach State. It was both their first starts for 2024.
The first thing that stands out for Serna is his size, as he’s listed 5'11 and 165lbs and he very much looks it. Still, Serna was up to 93 on the stadium gun in the first inning but settled in at 90–92 for the majority of his start. His best pitch is by far his change-up, which had a spin rate of 2250–2400rpm and was in the mid to high 70s on Wednesday night. I note this because a lot of change-ups sit at sub-2000 rpm. It drops a fair amount and works back to his arm side. His delivery is very clean and calm, with a 3/4 release. Here’s a fairly recent and high definition look of the pitch.
Yhoangel Aponte did pounce on a fastball that Serna left up in the second inning, with an exit velocity of 103.2mph, more on him in a bit. Serna definitely slowed down starting in the 4th inning, and then was hit hard in the fifth, giving up a double to Yeuni Munoz and triple to Nicholas Deschamps at 103.9mph and 97.9mph exit velocities. He didn’t register a swinging strike in the fifth. His fastball at that point was consistently sitting in the 90–91mph range, so I think he was gassed in his first start. Going forward, Serna is going to need to build up some stamina and hopefully add some strength to maintain that velocity deeper into games and try to surpass 50 innings in a season. If he can do that, then we can definitely talk about him being a starter with a change-up as dynamic as his.
Juaron Watts-Brown relied heavily on his four seam fastball, throwing it 70% of the time, flashing 95mph initially but settling in 92–93 by the end of the start. It didn’t miss many bats but he was able to throw it for a strike, and he started nearly every batter with a fastball, only throwing an opening slider to George Lombard Jr. and a curveball to Roderick Arias in his last at-bat against them. His slider was probably his strongest offering, sporting a 44% whiff rate. His slider doesn’t move very much horizontally but he gets some good downward movement on it. While the In-Zone contact rate was 100%, the hardest hit ball was only 83.8mph off the bat. He only threw four curveballs and one change-up in the outing. Two of the hardest hit balls came against lefties and it hints that right now Watts-Brown doesn’t have an offering to deal with them. Getting either the change-up or curveball to even an average offering could help with that and improve his chances of sticking as a starter, because the pieces are there.
In game two I thought Cade Smith pitched well in his first home start of the season and was let down by his team’s defense, though he did struggle with walks. He got swings and misses on both his four seam fastball and slider. The slider was his strongest offering, throwing it for a called strike more than his fastball. The fastball control was erratic, missing up consistently throughout the game. His third and fourth innings saw his velocity dip but he still worked through it. Something weird happened in the third inning, where a ball was hit and ruled an infield fly, but no Tampa fielders took control to actually catch the ball, which allowed both runners to advance. Tucker Toman then drove them in with a double. Had those runners not advanced, maybe both don’t score on the double by Toman. Smith will need to reign in the walks to go deeper in games as a starter. The slider is his strongest pitch, but the rest of the arsenal is lacking right now and a K/BB ratio of 1 is not ideal.
Cade Austin was strong as the piggy back off of Smith. He pounded the strike zone with his slider, sinker and change-up and got swings and misses with all three pitches. He gets about the same horizontal movement off his change-up and sinker but with more depth on the change-up and kills the spin on it. The slider is a gyro slider, moving down and little horizontally at around 86mph. He did give up a homerun to Victor Arias but otherwise pitched and extremely clean. He touched 93 but mostly say 90–92 with his fastball. While Austin is a 19th rounder and older for Single-A, he’s someone I’m going to keep an eye on going forward.
The third game for Tampa pitchers was rough. Allen Facundo threw 42 pitches in only 2 innings of work and didn’t miss many bats with any of his pitches but he sat 93–95 with his fastball. He’s currently walking a batter an inning. His change-up was actually pretty good when he kept it at the bottom of the zone, which will help against righties. He threw his slider for a few strikes but otherwise missed badly up in the zone with it. Jordy Luciano struggled with control but sat 95 with his fastball. His slider and curveball sort of overlap in terms of movement, though in different velocity bands. He hit two batters and walked another three, with a wild pitch and a passed ball leading to runs for Dunedin. His slider has more horizontal movement than others I saw this week but couldn’t throw it close enough to the strike zone to get swings. Montana Semmel got Dunedin batters to swing at his four seam fastball when located up in the zone and showed good command of his slider, throwing it for a strike and getting whiffs. He gave up two runs as a result of a George Lombard Jr. throwing error that kept an inning going.
Grant Rogers and Fernando Perez were the starters for game two and three for Dunedin. Rogers is a very large right hander at 6'7 while Perez is 6'3. Rogers stands to the far third base side and comes from a 3/4 delivery. He struggled with walks initially but calmed down and ended up striking out six Tampa hitters over four innings. The double he gave up was a looping pop-up just over third base that bounced into the stands. He had a kitchen sink of pitches: a cutter, four seam, slider, curveball, sinker and a change-up. The cutter was his best offering, as he threw it for both strikes and whiffs in the high 80s. Like many pitchers in this piece, reigning in the walks will be something to work on.
Perez’s delivery is similar to Brusdar Greaterol’s in that it looks like it’s all arm. Perez was impressive in his five innings, leaning on his four seam fastball, which he both commanded and controlled extremely well and held 92 mph through the final batter he faced. I’m including the illustrator to to and emphasize his use of the four seamer:
That cluster up and in on the right handed hitter? It consists 5 swinging strikes and a foul tip. The swings were ugly, I think the run on the fastball was making hitters very uncomfortable. Yondrei Rojas then fed a steady diet of sinkers in on the hands of righties and away from lefties, which no one put in play, posting a 53% Called Strike+Whiff rate. Kai Peterson had an interesting delivery, which I’ll post below. He basically showed his entire back to batters then came from a low 3/4 delivery, sort of crossfire and threw only sinkers. The righties he faced look very uncomfortable and coincidentally the lefties who I thought he would handle well, were both hit by pitches.
He threw the sinker 44 times, getting 19 swings, 10 whiffs and 6 more called for strikes. He did walk a two batters but managed to get out of the jam he created. It’s hard to get excited about a reliever in Single-A but Peterson seems like a unique pitcher worth following.
I came away really impressed with Victor Arias and Yhoangel Aponte of Dunedin. Aponte went to right center field for his homerun against Serna in the second inning with an exit velocity of 103.2mph. Arias hits were clocked at 106mph and 108mph. Both Arias and Aponte had a strong sense of the strike zone, working walks and deep counts against Tampa pitchers. Aponte had a rougher second game, going 0–4 with 4 strikeouts. They were competitive at-bats but the swing and miss is there, including some chasing out of zone pitches. Aponte’s power was to all fields and one thing I didn’t see was him pull the ball.
For what it’s worth, Aponte’s strikeouts came against former SEC pitchers Cade Smith and Cade Austin, who are a couple years older than him. His third game had him very nearly hit for the cycle, with every hit coming at 99mph or faster exit velocities. On top of that, Aponte moves extremely well for his size, as he stole multiple bases and legged out extra base hits. Defensively he was in centerfield, with few opportunities, it’s hard to say where he’ll be defensively but it probably won’t be centerfield, which makes his bat much more important. He’s fairly filled out, so it’ll be interesting to see if he maintains his strength as he climbs. I think Aponte’s power could take another jump if he starts finding pitches he can pull, because while it’s great he’s hitting hard balls to center and right center those tend to be the deeper parts of most baseball fields and could lead to more flyballs.
Arias has a very good hit tool, showing very little swing and miss in the two games I saw him play. He pulled a fastball into the right center bleachers in the second game I saw. He worked deep counts, letting obvious balls pass by but is willing to be aggressive when he sees his pitch. The louder hit balls have tended to be more line drives and groundballs thus far and 2/3 of his batted balls are under 95mph exit velocity wise. It’s still early and he’s rocking a .500 BABIP, but even if that regresses he still has the eye to still get on-base. It’s one week and I’m probably getting too excited, but Arias and Aponte are looking like Dunedin’s best hitters and could be moving up before season’s end.
Arjun Nimmala was another player I was excited to see. He was one of the youngest players drafted in 2023 and is playing the entire year at 18 years old. Single-A is aggressive but the Blue Jays seem to believe in him. He had a very nice triple in the first game I saw, hitting it over 100mph to dead center field. There was also a lot of swings and misses on soft stuff low and out of the zone. But there is also swing and miss on in-zone pitches, too. He’s running a 30% strikeout rate right now, but it’s still early and there’s a long way to go for his development.
For Tampa, I anticipated strong performances from Roderick Arias and George Lombard Jr., but I also came away wanting to keep an eye on Daury Arias. Lombard Jr. stood out to me for his ability to identify balls and strikes, drawing 5 walks in the first two games. There is still some swing and miss in the zone right now (10.8% SwStrk in-zone) and sometimes he’s passive with his takes of strikes where you wonder if he could be more aggressive rather and maybe ambush a pitcher. He also did successfully challenge a pitch called a strike against him. His singles were well hit line drives both to right center and pull side.
Roderick Arias was fairly inconsistent in his time at the plate. He swung and missed at a lot of pitches, which contributes to his current 51.4% strikeout rate. Most of the whiffs are on pitches out of the zone, with it all sort of spread between hard and soft pitches. There’s less in-zone swing and miss but those whiffs come on soft stuff, which makes me wonder if he’s having trouble tracking breaking pitches or just not identifying them. When he does impact the ball, it can be very hard contact. He pulled a couple pitches nicely down the right field line in the games I saw. The issue is getting that contact consistently right now and it won’t get easier in the higher levels. Arias can be patient and draw walks, but not enough to offset the whiffs.
Defensively Arias and Lombard Jr. split time at shortstop, with Arias going to second when Lombard Jr. was at short and Lombard Jr. shifting to third for Arias. Both are good defenders with the movements and arm strength to stick at short. Lombard Jr. made an impressive play in the hole on Wednesday night, and Arias caught a lead runner trying to advance to third in a pickle. There were errors, with Lombard Jr. missing a throw low to first and straight up dropping a pop-up at third. Arias made a throwing error trying to catch a runner making a dash from home on a delayed steal but may have gotten him had it been on-target. Lombard Jr.’s arm is strong enough to stay at third to accommodate Arias if that’s the alignment Tampa chooses to stick with.
Daury Arias had a tough time, hitting several balls at 105+ mph but directly at outfielders or to the deepest part of the park. Like Roderick (no relation), Daury struggles with strikeouts and doesn’t seem to have the discipline to draw walks right now. Defensively, I thought he did a pretty good job in right field, running down a ball towards the foul line and coming in twice on sinking line drives in front of him for outs. He very nearly threw a runner out at second trying to advance on the catch near the foul line. When you see him impact the ball you know why the Yankees are playing him, but it won’t matter if he continues to whiff as much as he does both in-zone and out.
Next Up: Tampa vs. Lakeland to see Max Clark, Joseu Briceño and Jose De La Cruz
