The American League Looks Competitive
At this point last year, four of the top free agents in Major League Baseball were unsigned. This off-season has seen a much more frenetic pace, with 16 of the top 20 free agents in term of fWAR already finding homes. Both the National and the American Leagues have been active, but for today I’m going to recap/focus on the American League by each division.
American League East
Perpetually one of the toughest divisions with big spenders in New York and Boston. Three teams were over .500 with two of them reaching the postseason. The Yankees have only made two major league signings but they were important. They got their “ace” pitcher in Gerrit Cole, signing him for nine years. As always, it’s reasonable to expect the back end of that deal to have some potential to be a negative. But the first half of that contract could have an annual 5.0 fWAR pitcher.
They also retained Brett Gardner for another year, though it was tough to envision Gardner anywhere else. Gardner will probably see time in centerfield without Hicks, and he’s shown he’s capable to handle it even in his mid-to-late 30s. With Mike Tauchman and Aaron Judge back, plus Clint Frazier looking to expand his role (or be used as trade bait), the Yankees should be set. They still have an impressive bullpen and despite losing Didi Gregorius, their infield still has DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres.
The Boston Red Sox were good last year, ravaged by injuries in their rotation and a poor bullpen, they were unable to make it back to the postseason. Now, it looks like they’re actively trying to sell off the core that won that same championship in 2018 to get out of the luxury tax. Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez (who opted to remain with the team rather than enter free agency) and David Price all seem to be on the trade market. Rather than improve the bullpen and rotation to fight for the wildcard, it looks like Boston would rather sell off and miss the playoffs again.
The Tampa Bay Rays haven’t made any signings and have lost Eric Sogard, Avasaíl García and Travis D’Arnaud to National League contenders. They also traded Tommy Pham to San Diego, for a worse overall player in Hunter Renfroe (despite improved defense, he still strikes out more and walks less than Pham and cannot run as well) and a top-100 prospect in Xavier Edwards (who Blake Snell referred to as a “slapdick prospect”). The ultimate “get-slightly-worse-but-also-we-cut-payroll” move. They should still be in the hunt for the AL East and wildcard.
The Toronto Blue Jays have a decent core of young hitters, you might have heard of. They also took a step to shore up the rotation by signing Hyun-Jin Ryu to a four year contract and Tanner Roark to a two year contract. I’m a little perplexed by Ryu’s signing, mostly because I don’t think he’s the player that puts them over the top. It would make more sense if they still had Marcus Stroman. It’s possible they think Nate Pearson and Anthony Kay are legit starters. They’ll probably get closer to .500, especially if Boston follows through on selling off, but will still be just outside the playoffs.
The Orioles traded their best player, Jonathan Villar (who was produced 4.0 fWAR last year), to the Marlins for Easton Lucas, who I cannot find on any prospect lists anywhere. We have to legitimately wonder if they’re going to compete for the worst record in major league history next year.
AL Central
The Chicago White Sox have been extremely active this off-season and we all know that means that they will win the World Series in 2020. Kenny Williams would like you to know that this was always the plan, you know the one where they low-ball one of last winter’s the best free agents? In all seriousness, they have made some sensible moves to take advantage of a stagnant AL Central. Signing Yasmani Grandal for his framing alone should benefit their young starting rotation.
Signing Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez were simple moves to improve the back end of their rotation, potentially freeing up Reynaldo López to move to the bullpen.* Lucas Giolito finally tapped into the upside prospect writers have seen in him for years. Dylan Cease could be another mid-to-front end starter if he finds his control. Michael Kopech is full healthy but will more than likely be on an innings limit next year, while Carlos Rodón probably won’t be back until the second half of 2020 if everything goes right.
*I still think López can be even better as a starter:
With Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jiménez, Grandal and Edwin Encarnación, the White Sox have some thump. That’s not even mentioning Luis Robert potentially being called up. This team could be ready to compete for the division/wildcard next year, no matter what it will be entertaining.
Cleveland is taking the Boston approach to actively cutting payroll while also not improving their team. It started with the Trevor Bauer trade last year, though that was understandable. Ever since their 2016 World Series appearance, they’ve slowly let their core players from that team either leave (Michael Brantley) or shipped them out (Corey Kluber and Bauer).
Jason Kipnis and Yasiel Puig are both free agents who won’t return to Cleveland. They did acquire Emmanuel Clase and Delino DeSheilds Jr. for Kluber, which probably wasn’t enough of a return if Kluber bounces back from his injury. They’ve also openly discussed trading Francisco Lindor (Paul Dolan once told fans to “enjoy him” while they had him) and Mike Clevinger. Instead of a rotation of Shane Bieber-Clevinger-Carlos Carrasco-Kluber, Cleveland could be left with just Bieber and Carrasco, who is attempting to comeback from a bout with lukemia. They still won 93 games last year but I don’t see that happening again next year.
The Minnesota Twins won 101 games with some big bats and decent pitching in 2019. They retained Jake Odorizzi with a qualifying offer and Michael Pineda with a two year contract. They also re-signed Sergio Romo and signed Alex Avila. They did lose two back-end starters in Martin Perez to Boston and Kyle Gibson to Texas. C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop hit 40+ homeruns combined last year but opted to head to Detroit on one year contracts. It’s entirely possible they lose the division to Chicago and miss out on the wildcard due to how competitive Oakland and Tampa Bay are. It’s not that they’re any worse than last year, they just didn’t really improve whereas Chicago did. Then again, neither did Cleveland.
I’m going to group Kansas City and Detroit together, because the less said the better. The good news is that Jorge Soler (!!) finally reached that 40 homerun potential. The bad news is the Royals are still very bad and will attempt to rebuild. The Detroit Tigers were almost historically bad last year but don’t worry everyone, they’re trying:
It won’t win them the AL Central, but on the off chance Cron or Schoop get hot in the first half then they can flip them for prospects from contenders at the deadline. They have Casey Mize and Matt Manning down in the minors, who might one day form a decent rotation with Matthew Boyd? The Tigers will be worse than the Royals next year.
AL West
Arguably a low key competitive division! The Astros lost Gerrit Cole but held onto Joe Smith and Martin Maldonado. Their team is still really good, but we’ll see just how reliant they were on stealing signs. Reminder that their team K% in 2016 was 23.5%, which dropped to 17.3% in 2017 when they won the World Series and the alleged cheating began. If Forrest Whitley is healthy and figures it out, then he could be a ready made replacement for Cole. The Astros will still be a contender.
Oakland re-signed Jeff Diekman but lost Tanner Roark, Blake Treinen and Brett Anderson. They also don’t seem to be interested in re-signing Homer Bailey. They will still somehow win 90+ games next year and contend for the division or AL Wildcard.
The Angels finally did something and signed Anthony Rendon. The problem is that their rotation still is very suspect. Signing Julio Teherán is a positive, but I don’t know if you can rely on Ohtani (coming off Tommy John), Andrew Heaney, Teherán and Griffin Canning to be a World Series contender. They could’ve used Ryu or Keuchel after they failed to get Cole or Strasburg and now they’ll need a trade to find rotation help. They are replacing Kole Calhoun with Jo Adell, making for an exciting outfield. Still, they might just miss the postseason again if they don’t find some pitching.
The Texas Rangers have made several small, incremental improvements. After improving Lance Lynn and Mike Minor last year, they decided to fill out the rest of the rotation with Kyle Gibson and Corey Kluber. Gibson will be good for the back-end and Kluber, if he shows last year was simply a lost year could really put this rotation over top. The lineup is still going to be good, even after trading Nomar Mazara. Joey Gallo could hit 50 homeruns if he stays healthy. They’ll be in the wildcard conversation with their rotation alone.
Jerry Dipoto, Seattle’s general manager, made some trades last year. Félix Hernández is gone. They have some young pieces and I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to ship off Kyle Seager at some point for more prospects. The Mariners will continue their streak of missing the playoffs for a 19th season.
