The Angels Keep Wasting Our Time
The Los Angeles Angels and Mike Trout agreed to an extension last off-season that will last until what could be the heat death of the universe in the 2030s. Famously, the Angels have made the playoffs with Trout on their major league roster exactly one time in 2014, where they were swept by the Kansas City Royals in the Divisional Series. They had splurged on Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson and Albert Pújols in the preceding winters to try and maximize the time before they would have to pay Mike Trout his true value. They also had a few young starters on league minimum salaries in Matt Shoemaker, Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs.
Hamilton would be traded back to the Texas Rangers a year later while Wilson would pitch for one more year for the Angels in 2015 before having season ending (also career ending) surgery on his shoulder prior to the 2016 season. Pújols is still on the team in 2019, with two more years left on his 10 year contract. His last above average year was actually for that 2014 playoff team but he hasn’t come close to that production since.
The Angels front office had the right idea going for it in 2014, they just missed on the free agents they signed and that risk always exists. Five years later, most of that core is gone. Trout and Pújols are the only two starters left. In recent years there have been attempts to supplement them with good players like Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton and misses like Zack Cozart. Upton and Simmons have been decent when healthy while Cozart has been bad and injured. Still, they have dual threat Shohei Ohtani who is the only player on the roster who could rival Trout in terms of fan appeal and actual baseball talent.
I made the case during the 2018 off-season for the Angels to sign Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Craig Kimbrel, and Dallas Keuchel. They responded by not doing that and instead signing Trevor Cahill, Matt Harvey and Cody Allen. Unsurprisingly, they lost 90 games and never threatened for the Wild Card. So, here I am, just a man begging a large baseball organization step up and do something while they still have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani together for the next four years, at least. I’m not holding my breath.
Luckily, reality is not a part of this exercise and there are three free agents that the Angels can sign right now to make their team a potential contender in the American League. All three played in the most recent World Series and all three made major impacts for their teams. Yes, I am talking about Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon. Each will cost close to $30 million per year for at least five years. According to Spotrac, the Angels have $68 million in space before they hit the salary ca- sorry, the competitive balance tax. Front offices will have you know that this is a very, very bad thing because in an office somewhere there’s a graph with two lines that intersect and that’s why baseball teams aren’t allowed spend money anymore.
You can look at the three teams (The Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees) to pay the tax last season, and see only one made the playoffs. I could write quite a few reasons why the Red Sox were both expensive and not good but that’s another piece. Same with the Cubs. Never mind that all were competitive with win percentages over .500, the Yankees were two wins from a World Series appearance. I’d say the money spent was worth it. Six of the eight playoff teams were in the top 15 of MLB for team payroll, if you point to the Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays, I will counter by asking how much better they would be if they actually tried to spend money?
It’s entirely possible that Moreno is afraid of getting burned again, but we need to remember that Hamilton was already 32, Wilson was 31, Pújols was 32 and already showing signs of declining. It was an attempt at going for it, but ill informed. The industry now knows better (marginally) about players and their performance curves. This is now where I’ll look at all three players and explain why they will and won’t be worth it.
Anthony Rendon
Why He Won’t Be Worth it: He’s already shown some decline defensively (by both DRS and UZR/150), so your bet is that over, say a six year contract, his bat won’t degrade significantly until hopefully the fourth year or later. There are plenty of examples of post age-30 hitters falling off. He has missed time due to injury the past few seasons and as he gets older it’s hard to argue that he won’t be an injury risk in the future.
Why He Will Be Worth it: The Angels current third basemen is Zack Cozart, who just turned in a -0.9 fWAR season and in two seasons has played just 96 games. Even with Rendon’s injury history, he still averages more games than Cozart has the last four years on top of being a much better player. It’s safe to say Cozart will never be replicating that 5.0 fWAR season back in 2017. Would it be cheaper to trade to buy low and trade for Miguel Andújár? Maybe, in terms of cost sure, but other than money, Rendon is a better investment by simply being a better all-around player. If you need more convincing:
Let’s not overthink this, okay?
Gerrit Cole
Why He Won’t Be Worth It: If we want to get into conspiracy theory territory, especially given the sign stealing controversy surrounding the Astros, then it’s worth discussing how both Cole and Justin Verlander experienced jumps in their spin rate upon joining Houston. Pitchers using banned substances is common knowledge in the league, but if a team has created a substance for pitchers to use and increase their spin rate (Trevor Bauer believes this), then what happens to Cole when he leaves Houston? Does the substance come with him? Is his fastball as valuable as it was in Houston? This is, right now, the only reason I can think of to not sign Cole. He’s under 30 and he’s been durable, though that’s not a guarantee going forward. Even his home run issues didn’t last very long last year.
Why He Will Be Worth It: We haven’t see a strikeout pitcher like Gerrit Cole since Randy Johnson or Pedro Martínez. Those are two Hall of Fame pitchers. Again, we really can’t overthink this. The Nationals signed Max Scherzer to a long term deal coming off a recent (if not brief) run of excellence with the Tigers. I don’t think they regret that contract one bit. Even if he regresses to his Pittsburgh Pirates days, he’s still a good pitcher even if he isn’t worth $30 million dollars.
Stephen Strasburg
Why He Won’t Be Worth It: Injuries have really sapped Strasburg from hitting his true performance level. His back, his elbow and his shoulder among others. This was the first year since 2014 that he passed 200 innings pitched. He’s already 31 years old, much like C.J. Wilson was. Do you want to give him six years and where he potentially will only average 140 innings per year? Strasburg is a power pitcher, so what happens when that fastball goes away?
Why He Will Be Worth It: While he’s the same age C.J. Wilson was when he hit free agency, he’s both better and had more seasons as a starter than Wilson did. Also, 140 innings of Stephen Strasburg is still better than 140 innings of most every other pitcher you can find on the free agent market. Take a look at his year to year stats, even with injuries, and you will see how consistent Strasburg is. He’ll strikeout out at least 27% of batters he faces while walking 7% or less of them and he won’t give up many home runs relative to league average. If you’re concerned about his fastball, then you may be relieved to hear that his change-up and curveball are as good if not better than his fastball and he knows how to use them. Even if the velocity disappears, he’s skilled enough to use his off-speed to get batters out.
I don’t think the Angels will splurge on all three, realistically. But, if they can only choose two then they should sign Strasburg and Cole to stabilize their rotation. Richards and Shoemaker are gone while Andrew Heaney has been middling. Tyler Skaggs tragically passed away last season. All that’s left is Shohei Ohtani coming off Tommy John. Lessen the burden on Ohtani and build a rotation of Cole-Strasburg-Ohtani for years to come. Maybe sign Dallas Keuchel too, while you’re at it.
Rendon would be helpful to give them a third bat after Trout and Ohtani (who can’t even hit every day if he’s pitching) but the larger impact would come from having that formidable starting rotation. Houston and Washington each had three ace level starters and made it to the World Series. I really don’t want to have to write this piece again next year, Angels.
